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Latest Country Reports - Argentina, Brazil, Hungary and Turkey

Argentina
An economic recovery in 2010 is very uncertain and depends mainly on external factors. Looking optimistically, real GDP could grow 2%, generated by domestic demand and rising exports. The sustainability of debt is still doubtful, with the possibility of a run on deposits the main risk factor for banking sector.

Brazil
In 2010 the economy will recover, with forecast real GDP growth of 4.8%, based on domestic demand, real wages growth, and credit expansion. Private consumption is expected to increase by about 5%.. In the medium-term, foreign and domestic investment will be attracted, as Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016.

Hungary
A recovery is not expected before 2011, as demand from EU markets will remain flat and austerity measures will curb domestic demand. Tight fiscal discipline is necessary to keep the budget deficits in control, but this will be particularly hard in an election year. Concerns about Hungary’s ability to finance its sizeable external debt remain for the medium term, and multilateral support continues to be urgent.

Turkey
In 2010 the economy is expected to recover, with forecast real GDP growth of 3.2%, realised through all components of demand. Inflation will increase again to about 8%, while the fiscal position will continue to remain poor (a deficit of 5.8% of GDP). The economy will continue to be vulnerable due to increased government debt and the volatility of international capital markets.

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Atradius Market Monitor - February 2010

A mixed insolvency outlook: Economic recovery will not herald an immediate return to the benign insolvency conditions that prevailed before to the onset of the crisis. The current business environment in: The Netherlands, Switzerland, USA, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Japan.

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Atradius Market Monitor - January 2010

On the rebound, but major risks remain: The stabilisation of Europe’s major economies continues, but insolvency levels will remain high in the coming months. The current business environment in: Germany,   Spain, the UK, Mexico, Turkey, and Slovenia.

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Atradius Market Monitor - December 2009

A brighter outlook - with every passing month, there are more signs of improvement in the overall economic climate.  We review the current business environment in France, Canada, Italy, Norway, New Zealand, Brazil and Chile.

 

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Atradius Market Monitor - November 2009

The economic recovery gains momentum. That said, we shouldn’t be too over-optimistic in our outlook. The current business environment in the US, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Slovakia, and South Africa.

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Latest Country Reports - Poland and Singapore

Poland:

Economic growth will increase to 1.9% in 2010, depending on a recovery in exports and spending of EU-funds to improve infrastructure. Rising unemployment and decreasing credit and wage growth will dampen consumer spending.

Singapore:

In Q3 of 2009 the recession has ended. Manufacturing was the main contributor to growth, primarily driven by a surge in the biomedical sector and, to a lesser extent, by electronics inventory restocking. As long as the global recovery remains shaky and there is no decisive and sustainable rebound in demand, Singapore will remain susceptible to downside risks.

 

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Atradius white paper: sustainability and business - November 2009 

By adopting environmentally friendly policies and processes as part of their business strategy, businesses will find that the benefits far outweigh the costs.  That’s one of the conclusions of an Atradius white paper ‘Is sustainability incompatible with business growth’. 

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Atradius Market Monitor - October 2009

Still a mixed picture. The current business environment in the UK, Mexico, Germany, Spain, Denmark, Portugal, and the Czech Republic

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Atradius Payment Practices Barometer

Summer 2009 Results

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Latest Country Reports - India, Mexico and Turkey

India:

Domestic demand has proved quite strong in recent months. In Q2 of 2009 India’s growth again accelerated by 6.1% year-on-year. The fortunes of manufacturing have rebounded, led by the automotive sector. But the late and weak monsoon rains have proved a setback for the agriculture sector.

 

Mexico:

In 2009, real GDP-growth will contract by more than 7%. Recovery in 2010 depends largely on US economic performance, and more reforms in the energy sector are urgent.

 

Turkey:

Exchange rate and interest rate uncertainties will remain. The economy will also continue to be vulnerable due to increased government debt and the volatility of international capital markets.

 

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We welcome any feedback, corrections and suggestions you have on how we could improve our publications. This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it   these to Christian Bürger